How to Handicap Soccer 101

DialSquares · Nov 8, 2012

I don't want to highjack mod's thread anymore but I think his 'you cannot cap soccer' remark should probably be address because there is a fundamental set of trends/rules that if you follow you can usually do quite well. Of course you can cap soccer - like any sport - if you take the time to do it. I didn't know a single guy that actually post soccer picks with reasoning that don't follow at least some of these rules ..... to me soccer is the easiest sport to win money in but you need to take a lot of time to cap it. Just not this year for me.......

How to Handicap soccer
1) Team Form - pretty key to me - esp in lower leagues it is amazing how many teams go on 10-12 game unbeaten runs or losing skids.
2) Home/Away record - some teams have a crazy swing with home wins and road losses. Look at WBA - 5-1 at home 0-2-2 on the road...
3) H2H - people dismiss this but if there is recent stats with one team over another it could be very useful. El Classico have a crazy over record and just betting the over 3 goals have been profitable over the years.
4) Recent and Upcoming games - how many matches has a team played in the last 7 days? 11 days? Did one team play a tough cup match 3 days before? Were the stars rested? Is the other team well rested? Who do they play next? Sunday matches on the road for a CL team could be a game to bet against them....or if United play city on the weekend with a midweek match vs West Ham - maybe West Ham +1 is a good bet?
5) Team News - who is in and who is out? Any fresh injuries for key players or have they been out for awhile? Suspensions....have some players been back just 1 game and looked out of sorts in the previous match?
6) specifically for cup matches - motivation...is winning/staying in the league a priority? Do they have good cup runs and a manager that wants to win cups...not all do.
7) Weather report - a little rain is no big deal but in lower leagues and the smaller countries moderate rain or any snow anywhere it is a wise no bet....and check the wind. Super windy is no bet too....why get beat because of the weather.
8) yes gut instincts...if you follow/cap a sport for 15+ years you have a basic belief in a match so if all the signs point to a specific team winning and the odds are set right bet it. If all signs point to an 'easy home win' and the odds are +100 -125 you have to skip it. Bookies still know more than you even if you finished doing all the work,

for me if a play fits enough of these i play/post it. I should only play/post picks when all the rules meets all the rules but i'm not discipline enough I like 3 plays a day. One day i'll take it more seriously

probably too long and pointless but comments like mob just was too funny not to post...and it is Europa day so it is really not a soccer betting day. Every sport can be handicapped --- maybe not the NBA.

MattyMatt · Nov 8, 2012

Good post and nice read. Take everything Mob ever says and throw it out the window. Best advice anyone on here could ever get.

Mobdeeper7239 · Nov 8, 2012

See this is where we disagree. Because I think the NBA can be capped. It's scheduling bias that you can take advantage of. Teams walk into stadiums already knowing they are going to lose. They take nights off in the NBA. Soccer it is totally different because you may be able to look at all of those things that you are suggesting. But once the game starts... How are you able to predict the game being played? You can't. That is my point. A ball can take a deflection too damn easily. You are playing with your fucking feet. Everything you said is what I already said in my thread.... you can read the managers thoughts(the news)...you can know the schedule and who they played. But there is no scheduling bias, aka...traveling bias. Meaning, you aren't affected by your travels. How do I know that? Because their is no evidence that shows that is the case. The evidence that has been proved is Referee Bias. One of the main reasons for Soccer home teams having the highest winning percentage out of any sport. I mean I am living proof you don't have to know how to cap soccer to win. and I am living proof that line reading in soccer is the most key thing to betting it. Not the lineups or the weather or anything else. Line reading. Everyone has their own experience on every different situation...so to say either one of us is wrong...is wrong to say.

Mobdeeper7239 · Nov 8, 2012

Everything you said is the same way people cap about every other outside sport. What I am saying is....their ARE TOO MANY FACTORS that play into soccer and the NFL. Too many UNKNOWN FACTORS. This is not a percentage sport. A player doesn't dribble through three defenders X amount of times. A player doesn't catch a ball X amount of times.

Tell me how did you cap the Bayern Munich Vs Chelsea game? Because every single soccer analysts I saw was on Bayern Munich at home. How did you cap that game? I'll tell you how I capped it...I read the line movement and played Chelsea as my biggest soccer bet of my life.

pocketrockets · Nov 8, 2012

Mopdeeper, you are being annoying, I didnt mind your bs in the NFL forum but you are hijacking every single thread here without any winning record on soccer... stick to what you know, seriously

Mobdeeper7239 · Nov 8, 2012

lol this thread is obviously referring to me dude. I am going to respond and tell my experiences as well. Simple as that. I like Dial, I got no problem with dude. Appreciate the post Dial.

DialSquares · Nov 8, 2012

i actually don't mind his responses and i think once you get rid of high school stuff there can be a serious discussion. We just have a definite disagreement when it comes to the beautiful game. You can't pick and choose game with the crazy results/red cards/own goals/leo messi plays etc... to determine whether a set of betting rules works..certainly in basketball you can say Miami will beat Toronto at home but the spread is where the bets can go wrong. The general rule for most real bettors is DO NOT BET THE NBA...you must have read that a few times in your lifetime. But weird results happen in every sport and own goals, cracking shots, and Messi-like goals happen in all sports...errors in baseball cost matches all the time, 3 pointer at the buzzer to backdoor a cover in NBA, fumbles in football, triple takeouts in curling (i am Canadian)....plays are going to happen like the Cheslki header yesterday with no time left. But I could care less how one game goes - what i am saying is follow those rules and if you bet when 6-8 of those rules fit you will win every year. In fact because I am struggling this year - starting tomorrow - i will stick to the 'has to fit 6 of the 8 criteria' rule. It will make for better plays and I think (but wouldn't guarantee it) a much better record. But that means no more cup betting so cup games won't count...Hopefully we both can be right....nothing wrong with two guys crushing the books right? My only advice is you get more respect if you post winners without telling people how good you can pick winners...most of us hate the services and that's what they do.....i do hope you have a good run in soccer....as long as you keep the arsenal to lose bets to a minimum.

ps i am pretty sure I took the over in the CL final but i don't remember and my database is on my desktop that is a 4 hour drive south.

Mobdeeper7239 · Nov 8, 2012

thanks Dial. but there is no high school stuff here. In my opinion, being humble is an option. If people are more concerned with HOW I act over the info I put out there....then that is their own problem..I mean I understand the shit that I say is off the wall.But that is because I have taken the time to study theories and I feel like I have reached some sense of it all. But nobody knows everything. So to say that I am false or that my theories are false...is ignorant. Because 99.9% of people do not know what I know unless I tell them. Everyone is going to come from a different background with different experiences. It really is that simple. It's more than just picking a side in my opinion. It's just info. The picks are info.

though what you said about the Chelsea header with no time left....see in my thread I said... I noticed the line fit my system...but I also said to myself if this play loses.... it will be a crazy loss. Which I took my chance with. I was able to tell that just based off of the line movement. Reason for my "small" bet. Now how else would somebody be able to tell if the game would come down to a crazy outcome? Line movement dude. I have seen enough just like you have, but in different experiences... to the point where I am comfortable with what I know and you are comfortable with what you know. It's just two different styles. That's all. I wish you the best Dial, seriously. I got no issues with you. But this is how I bet soccer and I wont change that. I just know for a fact that something else decides the outcome of Soccer matches and NFL playoffs. It is NOT FIXED one bit. For anyone to think a Champions League game or an NFL playoff game is fixed...they have a lot to learn. Think about how easy it is to call something fixed? It is a cop out. A closed minded approach. This shit isn't suppose to be fucking easy. So the unthinkable is the thinkable. Why did Chelsea win in the CL final? I call that fate. Why did David Tyree catch a ball on the top of his helmet? I call that fate. Because it sure as hell isn't a percentage or fixed. You know what I am saying?

achandicap · Nov 8, 2012

Nice work, Dial. I especially work off your Rules 4, 5 and 6. Another thing to keep in mind is group-play considerations and second-leg ties. For example, CONCACAF Champs League changed the way teams qualified into the knockout stages, and it created easy Over plays for the first two or three rounds as teams knew they needed goals for possible knockout tiebreakers. Second-leg ties often have one team much more motivated than the other: Either a team has a healthy lead and cruises (allowing the Dog a meaningless win), or the team at a deficit decides to not attempt to catch up (like Sao Paulo crushing U de Chile Tuesday after a 2-0 win in the first leg).

MattyMatt · Nov 8, 2012

Mobdeeper7239 said:
Because 99.9% of people do not know what I know unless I tell them.

Classic!

Mobdeeper7239 · Nov 8, 2012

MattyMatt said:
Classic!

there are more than a handful of people who would vouch for this. Because of the information I have shared to them. If you weren't so closed minded, you coulda been one of them and you wouldn't be laughing. Bye.

AustinMark · Nov 8, 2012

Mob, if you did bet the Chelsea/Bayern match, then you probably lost since it went to a shoot out. Maybe you bet the Cup? I'll take Dial's advice over yours any day! Just my opinon.

pocketrockets · Nov 8, 2012

AustinMark said:
Mob, if you did bet the Chelsea/Bayern match, then you probably lost since it went to a shoot out. Maybe you bet the Cup? I'll take Dial's advice over yours any day! Just my opinon.

This !!!!!!!

Mobdeeper7239 · Nov 8, 2012

lol. I got everyone against me. What's new. All because of what? The way I act or the off the wall stuff that I say? Which one is it?

Munich were favored by half a goal -137 something. If you take +0.5 and it goes into OVERTIME. that means you win LOL. Then you can put more money on the game before extra time. and the shootout. You need a lot of advice apparently.

rolltide · Nov 8, 2012

pocketrockets said:
.. stick to what you know, seriously

in his case you'll have to me more specific since none of us have any idea what that might be

thx

Mobdeeper7239 · Nov 8, 2012

oh this is turning into a bash mob thread. How about read what I wrote and learn something.

tk2wndw · Nov 8, 2012

rolltide said:
in his case you'll have to me more specific since none of us have any idea what that might be

thx

Dial, in the long run those factors all can be used to your benefit and I think it is possible to handicap soccer. The one reason I can see where mob is coming from is in soccer, you have games where one team outshoots another team 25-6, dominates play and possession, and loses. In other sports, this is a pretty random occurrence. However, in soccer, it is a pretty common occurrence. I think this just comes down to the fact that goals are scored only 2 or 3 times a game, and as such, dominating play a lot of the time does not have a bearing on the final outcome.

AustinMark · Nov 8, 2012

Mobdeeper7239 said:
lol. I got everyone against me. What's new. All because of what? The way I act or the off the wall stuff that I say? Which one is it?

Munich were favored by half a goal -137 something. If you take +0.5 and it goes into OVERTIME. that means you win LOL. Then you can put more money on the game before extra time. and the shootout. You need a lot of advice apparently.

Bro, I keep my records, and I had CFC (220) to lift the cup. I don't know what the spred was! I won, and my adopted team won! All in all, a good day brother! Not sure why you have so much angst in your heart, but relieve it. It'll make you a whole lot calmer and cooler! And we all need to be cool fonzies!